WHO WILL WIN THE WAR IN GAZA?
As the war grinds on in Gaza and no one knows at this time what will happen once military action has stopped, the question arises who will actually be the winner of this conflict.
This is the fifth war Israel and Hamas are fighting since 2007; on average one war every three years. In every case the war ended with a cease fire which was only to be broken by Hamas again once its military forces and infrastructure had been rebuilt.
Israel will not agree to another cease fire before it has achieved its objective: to decimate Hamas, once and for all, and prevent it from fighting another war from Gaza. The dismantling and destruction of Hamas will take time but the IDF will eventually achieve its task: Hamas will no longer control the civil administration of Gaza, its tunnel system, built at enormous expense, will have been destroyed, Hamas leaders will have been killed or arrested or will have escaped via Egypt to other Arab countries where they will live in hiding fearing to be assassinated by Israeli agents. Whilst the Hamas movement will still have followers in Gaza as well as in several Arab countries, its power will have been severely damaged and its financial resources largely exhausted. Like ISIS and Al Qaida, remnants of Hamas will continue to exist but its power and the danger it causes will have been largely eliminated. Despite, as always, claiming victory, shouting and shooting in the air Hamas will be a shadow of what it once was — it lost war #6 and this time decisively.
Israel will have achieved its objective and can claim a military victory. However, this came at a great expense. Rejecting a cease fire, but accepting humanitarian pauses in the fighting to allow the release of hostages, will have led to more civilian casualties which in turn will increase the anger, even hatred of Israel and isolate the country more, at least for some time.
Israel will claim victory in their war to destroy Hamas. However, there is no victory until the threat from Israel’s neighbours and their military actions are ended. In order to achieve this Israel has to continue fighting: there are Hamas and Islamic Jihad trained terrorist forces in the West Bank and in Southern Lebanon; there is Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Syria; there are other Islamist groups such as the Houthis and even Boko Haram in Africa which will try to mount attacks on Israel, on Jews, and Western nations. Whilst Israel will be able to claim its win in Gaza, it won’t be able to achieve its objective of ensuring lasting security for its citizens until all these Islamist radical forces are severely damaged and unable to mount attacks inside Israel and of Jewish targets around the world. This means the war has not been won, might continue for many years to come and might never end in an all-out victory.
This leaves the Palestinian people living in Gaza. The 2 ½ million Gazans will have suffered enormously: great parts of the country, civil infrastructure and housing will have been destroyed and take years to be rebuilt. Thousands of civilians will have been killed, many more injured, some incapacitated for life. But once military actions end, Gazans will return to areas of the strip which were not destroyed and to houses, even in Gaza city, which are still standing and are largely undamaged. Funds for reconstruction of Gaza will flow in lifting employment, growing the economy, and rebuilding better infrastructure, hospitals, schools, power plants and accommodation than those which were there before after 17 years of Hamas rule. Funds flowing into Gaza won’t no longer be diverted by Hamas to be spend on their military infrastructure, weapons, training and retaining fighters. Even if some corruption is endemic and can’t be stopped, much larger funds will flow into Gaza and will contribute to the wellbeing and prosperity of the Gaza population.
Even more importantly, as Hamas power over Gaza is destroyed for the first time after forcing people to live under the dictatorship of a brutal, autocratic Islamist regime for more than 17 years, Gaza’s population will be able to live without fear — dress as they like, listen to music and dance, be protected from being arrested, tortured, killed because of a different opinion, a different lifestyle, sexual orientation, or simply for accepting Israel as a neighbour to live in peace with. And Gazans will have the opportunity to freely elect their government and thus decide their own future..
However long this takes and whoever will ultimately govern Gaza it is clear: the winner of this war will be the Gaza population.
